The STEEM/HIVE Ratio Is Approaching 1. What Could This Mean?
I haven't traded on the cryptocurrency exchange for about 2 years. I have described my experience before. I read quite a lot of literature, prepared myself for the trade and still failed to make a profit, exiting the trade with about the same funds that I entered withHowever, I am constantly interested in the price of STEEM, as I sell half of my liquid rewards while in the #club5050. Recently, I have noticed that the price of STEEM token is stubbornly approaching the price of HIVE token. If we look at the historical value of the STEEM/HIVE ratio, we see the following picture:
If we ignore the manipulation peaks, we can see that starting from September 2022, STEEM "gets up from its knees", and the STEEM/HIVE ratio has increased from 0.4 to almost 1. And it seems that this is not a temporary phenomenon, this trend has been going on for about 1.5 years.
After seeing such a picture, I became interested in what caused it.
After the big split, Steem experienced a huge information attack, the main slogan of which was "Steem is dead". As a result, the STEEM token was subjected to enormous selling pressure. However, over time it became clear that the death was only clinical and the patient began to recover. The community began to revive and grow little by little, and having such a big player as the Steemit team kept the feeling of leadership in the project.
In turn, Hive maximized efforts to establish itself as the true successor to Steem. Unlike Steem, Hive has never stopped new development, the blockchain supports a large number of tokens, and the number of DApps is steadily growing.
So what caused Steem to "catch up" to Hive?
One would have to be naive to think that the resurgence of the community, the friendly atmosphere, and the general improvement in the quality of the posts attracted investors. Money loves money. Therefore, it is worth looking for the reason in something else. But what does Steem have to offer that Hive doesn't?
The only reason I could find is the price of SBD and accordingly much higher rewards than Hive can offer. Thus, it is much more profitable for an investor to buy STEEM than HIVE and then receive rewards in SBD, the value of which is always much higher than $1.
It is not difficult to guess the second "advantage" related to the first. This is the presence of bid bots. Thanks to this, the investor who bought STEEM is always sure that he will be guaranteed to receive the rewards he is counting on.
Thus, at the moment, people are buying STEEM, expecting to get a large profit in a relatively short time. This is a rather shaky economic model.
But there is another hypothesis.
The period of growth of the STEEM/HIVE ratio partially coincides with the period when no SBDs were printed. Accordingly, people did not exchange SBD for STEEM and sold much less STEEM. The easing of selling pressure could have been the factor behind the rise in the STEEM price and, accordingly, the STEEM/HIVE ratio.
Whatever the reason for the stability of the STEEM token, for the Steem blockchain to be truly successful, we need to think not only about what it can give us, but also about what each of us can do for the blockchain and the community.
When I saw the question on Discord earlier today, I thought I’d see if it had been mentioned on Hive and found very little. The only thing I found was an observation of the gap closing and a request for the whales to stop selling their profits… which would be contributing to the gap closing. Their DAO has been paying out huge sums of money on a daily basis - which appears to be big whales “milking the system”. These projects are increasing their selling pressure for the dApps which these charts show aren’t providing the benefit that they’re costing. (I’ve got to be mindful of talking myself out of a job here!) literally hundreds of HBD per day are going to these projects with an initiative to peg HBD at $1 almost certainly impacting the price of Hive too.
The trading volume also makes STEEM more attractive too which I think is a contributing factor.
What an interesting observation. This can really be one of the reasons why the price of HIVE grows slower.
This is a great danger. The lack of regulation of justified allocation of funds is very similar to corruption, which causes poor countries in poverty. Hive really has more Dspps, but I have never deepened whether these DApps are something interesting and useful.
My guesses:
At first, I had #club5050 and #club100 on the list, but I removed them. In looking at powered-up Steem metrics and numbers of minnow/dolphin/orca accounts over the last couple years, I don't really see much indication that those programs really make much difference to overall staking totals or to STEEM's price.
How interesting. What seemed like a big advantage for attracting investment may turn out to be more harmful than helpful.
I agree with you, I would also like to see layer-2 token here. Although I also do not fully understand how exactly they can be useful for STEEM. It probably depends on the project that creates them.
This is quite disappointing. I had hope that the clubs would have an effect.
I still think it may turn out to be useful. To me, the problem with the way that they did it is that they basically just did "set and forget". IMO, a more thoughtful and dynamic method is needed for finding optimal values at any point in time.
It's just me guessing, though. An actual analysis has not been done (AFAIK). I could easily be wrong.
Good ideas and theories, here...
I think there's an interesting double-edged sword here. Hive has much more dApp development going on, so there is lots of activity but that development is funded by the DHF to the tune of thousands per day, most of which gets sold because all those developers see it (and rightfully so) as salary not as an investment. So there is constant sell pressure, in a way Steemit doesn't experience.
It's ironic, because Hive is a lot more "feature rich" than Steemit, with its own video, insta, twitter and other clones, as well as a number of fairly good freestanding games... but the very mechanism that made all that possible is what's contributing to the stagnant token price.
I expect the fact that Steemit- in a very general sense - is friendlier towards Asian users probably also has an impact on the situation.
Of course, if the price does not rise, then the goods are sold as actively as they are bought. The same with the HIVE token. I've been worried for a long time that the funds from the DAO here on Steem are not used for new developments, but now I understand that not all developments do more good than harm. This is a very interesting observation.
Another interesting thought.
"Yes, I agree about the DAO(HIVE). This pressure means that they are also trying to target people who might want to share their own content. In fact, they've become very aggressive about this, trying to hit small investors by somewhat looting them. Additionally, in my opinion, the fact that SBD is strong impacts investors, so they prefer Steemit."
I agree with you. If I had a lot of money and was only looking at the investment based on how much profit I would get, then Steemit looks much more attractive.
Very interesting thoughts. I, as a person who has tried myself both here and there, can say what is in Steemit, what is not in Hive - an adequate job of the curator. Curators support quality content, which motivates the best to stay and continue actively interacting on Steemit.
О, так. Якщо говорити про контент, то саме куратори вирішують які дописи тут потрібні. Автори завжди підлаштовуються під вимоги кураторів. Саме тому на кураторах лежить важка ноша відповідальності за цікавість цієї платформи для читачів.
Не погоджуюся. На хайві є сильні кураторські команди, які підтримують якісний контент. Саме тому я дуже довго був там. Але зізнаюся, я вже це казав і мені не соромно ще раз повторити, я недооцінив Стіміт. Ці платформи просто пішли дещо різними шляхами і це чудово , на мою думку. Я гадаю, що зараз вже немає причин ворогувати між собою, а краще залучати користувачів із централізованих соцмереж. Якщо рахувати з часів спільної платформи, то вже пройшло вісім років з моменту запуску і ми бачимо, що ця ідея працює і не думає зникати. Я вважаю, що все ще попереду і технологія децентралізованих платформ має величезний потенціал і саме ці дві платформи довели свою життєздатність. Були ще й інші подібні проекти, але вони не вижили.
Ну не знаю, не зна. Як на мене кураторські команди на хайві більш упереджені ніж на Стіміті і фокусуються переважно на вже перевірених користувачах.
Ну то таке, погляди не обов'язково повині збігатись.
Я не говорив про ворогування. Тут більше про конкуренцію, яка стимулює розвиток. І добре, що вона є.
Мене те ж колись банили, але то ще на Стіміт було, я був злий як собака, але формально було за що
FWIW, based on this, I don't think it has much to do with the price of SBDs. It appears to me that the gap has been closing somewhat steadily since November, 2021. For most of that time, SBDs were not printing.
Yes, it seems that other factors play a major role here. Obviously, it's a combination of everything we've discussed here. If Hive has an active sale of tokens, in particular through DAO, then Steem, on the contrary, has #burnsteem25 and clubs, plus DAO has been blocked for a long time. Perhaps there are other factors that are difficult to notice at first glance.
The fact that Steemit created this friendly environment which I strongly believe is really missing on hive is what I believe also helps on Steemit. Overall the all, it has been proven that the slogan Steemit is dead is just a lie as Steemit is still very much alive
Yes, now it can be clearly stated.
I don't know much about trading, but which exchanges the coins can be traded on might be a factor. My guess is that Hive has a more USA-centric userbase, but the regulatory environment in the US has made it harder to access smaller coins (eg Bittrex shut down, Binance always had a smaller US subsidiary with only a limited selection of coins, etc.).
This may be one of the factors. Hive has more "western" users, while we have more users from underdeveloped countries.
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