特朗普的如意算盘：美国六百亿军援乌克兰的背后

接着说一说美国在乌克兰的至暗时刻通过的这个援助法案的事。其实乌克兰战争打了两年多，打到现在这个形势情况比较明朗了。也就是俄乌两国在体量上的差异是巨大的。俄罗斯人口是乌克兰的四倍，底面积自然资源更是不可同日而语。而现在的战局就是类似一战时期的消耗战。如果没有西方的援助，乌克兰是绝无可能撑得过俄罗斯的。如果没有西方军队直接参战，乌克兰也绝无可能打赢。俄罗斯。不过，北约军队参战这种事情，也就是法国总统马克龙嚷嚷了几声，并没有见到实际的行动。而且西方国家内部对乌克兰的态度也是有很大分歧的。

像波罗的海三国、波兰这样的东欧国家，离乌克兰很近，有着存亡齿寒关系的是坚决挺乌，而且很多迹象表明，作为北约国家的波兰，实际上已经秘密派出了地面部队参与到乌克兰的战斗中了。比如前不久，在双方目前正在激烈争夺的要塞——恰索夫亚尔、俄军发动了一次导弹袭击，据说就炸死了一位波兰的准将。这条消息得到了波兰方面的侧面印证。因为就在同一时间，波兰国内发布了这位准将的赴告。不过并没有说他是在乌克兰阵亡的，而是因为意外事件去世。

而其他的国家则已经对没完没了的冲突有些不耐烦了。像匈牙利的总统一直被主流媒体指责为普京的帮凶。不过他说的却是一句大实话。“对于拥有核武器的俄罗斯来说，想要打败他就是一个美丽的童话。”且像德国这样的中东欧发达经济体，在俄乌战争争爆发之前，一直都在享用着廉价的俄罗斯天然气，俄乌冲突迁延不绝，导致这些国家通胀飙升，民众怨声载道，而今明两年又是各国的大选年，这样的民意对援助乌克兰所造成的影响也不可低估。而且德国似乎也是心里明白，乌克兰的失败似乎是不可避免的，所以也不愿意过度刺激俄罗斯。比如德国手上最拿得出手的援助器是金牛座巡航导弹。射程五百公里，是所有可以援乌武器中最大的。可以在非常安全的地方打击俄罗斯的后方的重要目标。比如部队集结点和重要的后勤枢纽。但是德国知道，即便这样的武器给了乌克兰，也不可能对战争局势产生多大的影响。因为现在是消耗战，俄罗斯地大物博消耗的起，而像金牛座导弹这样的先进武器数量是非常有限的，产量也不可能上得来。虽然给了乌克兰之后，可以对俄军造成一些重大的损失，但还不至于改变战争形势，所以他们一直都不愿意出手援助这种武器。好在战争结束后和俄罗斯对话留下窗口和情面。

再来说说美国，这前面说的，虽然作为一个整体——欧洲内部的意见相当分裂，但是单论各个国家的想法，各国内部的观点还是比较一致的。而美国国内的状态本身就是分裂的，川普和民主党几乎就是不共戴天的状态，而且这次众院议长还是川普的铁粉？凡是拜登支持的，川普必然会反对。那为什么这次却主动给民主党台阶下，在没有和民主党进行任何政治交换的情况下，推动国会通过了六百亿美元的军援呢？

其实懂王川普也是有小算盘的。对于川普来说，乌克兰能够在今年十一月大选前战败，对他来说无疑是最好的结果，这样他就可以在大选中抨击拜登的无能。但是川普不能为了达成这个目标，阻挠军援法案的通过，这样反倒授人以柄，到时候拜登可以趁机甩锅给他。那么那个时候用乌克兰战败攻击拜登无能的这张牌威力就小了很多。所以不如做个顺水人情。

按现在的形势，即便是有了这六百亿，乌克兰能不能躺挺到十一月大选还很难说，如果那样的话，川普就可以名正言顺的指责拜登无能了。而就算乌克兰因为这六百亿援助挺到了十一月。等川普上台之后再来促成俄乌和平，他也可以得到和平缔造者的好名声。所以对他来说怎么样都行。

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Then there is the matter of the aid bill passed by the United States in Ukraine's darkest hour. In fact, the war in Ukraine has been going on for more than two years, and now the situation has become clearer. That is, the difference in size between Russia and Ukraine is huge. Russia's population is four times that of Ukraine and its natural resources are unmatched. The current situation is similar to the war of attrition in World War I. There is no way Ukraine can survive Russia without Western help. Ukraine could not have won without direct involvement of Western troops. Russia. However, this kind of NATO troops entering the war, which is the French President Emmanuel Macron made a few noises, but did not see the actual action. And attitudes to Ukraine in the West are deeply divided.

Eastern European countries such as the Baltic states and Poland, which are close to Ukraine and have an existential relationship with Ukraine, are staunchly pro-Ukraine, and there are many indications that Poland, a NATO country, has actually secretly sent ground troops to fight in Ukraine. Recently, for example, a Russian missile strike near the hotly contested fortress of Chasovar is said to have killed a Polish brigadier general. This news was confirmed by the Polish side. Because at the same time, the Brigadier general's visit was announced in Poland. It does not say that he was killed in Ukraine, but that he died in an accident.

Other countries have grown impatient with the endless conflict. The president of Hungary, for example, has been accused by the mainstream media of being Putin's accomplice. But he was telling the truth. "For Russia, which has nuclear weapons, to want to defeat him is a beautiful fairy tale." And developed economies in central and Eastern Europe, such as Germany, had been enjoying cheap Russian gas before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to soaring inflation and popular discontent in these countries, and the impact of such public opinion on aid to Ukraine cannot be underestimated. And Germany seems to know that failure in Ukraine seems inevitable, so it is reluctant to overprovoke Russia. For example, Germany's most useful aid is the Taurus cruise missile. With a range of 500 kilometers, it is the largest of all weapons that can aid Ukraine. It can hit important targets in the Russian rear from very safe places. Such as troop assembly points and important logistics hubs. But Germany knew that even if such weapons were given to Ukraine, they would not have much effect on the situation of the war. Because it is now a war of attrition, Russia's vast territory and resources can afford to consume, and the number of advanced weapons such as Taurus missiles is very limited, and production is impossible to come. Although it can cause some significant losses to the Russian army after giving it to Ukraine, it is not enough to change the situation of the war, so they have been reluctant to send aid to this weapon. The good thing is that there is a window of opportunity for dialogue with Russia after the war is over.

Turning to the United States, as I said before, although the views within Europe as a whole are quite divided, the views within the countries are relatively consistent when it comes to the ideas of the individual countries. And the state of the United States itself is divided, Trump and the Democratic Party is almost at odds with the state, and this time the Speaker of the House of Representatives or Trump's iron fan? Anything Biden supports, Trump is bound to oppose. So why did he give the Democrats a free pass this time, pushing $60 billion in military aid through Congress without any political quid pro quo?

In fact, I know Wang Chuanpu also has a small calculation. For Trump, a defeat in Ukraine before the November election is the best outcome for him, so he can attack Biden's incompetence in the general election. But Trump cannot achieve this goal by blocking the passage of the military aid bill, which would then give people the opportunity to blame Biden. Then the attack on Biden's incompetence with Ukraine's defeat would have been much less powerful. So let's do it for the sake of it.

As things stand, even with this $60 billion, it is doubtful that Ukraine will survive until the November election, in which case Trump will be able to justly accuse Biden of incompetence. And even Ukraine survived until November because of the $60 billion. By brokering peace between Russia and Ukraine after Trump takes office, he can also gain a good reputation as a peacemaker. So whatever works for him.

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